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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record IND 14:40 RDU 16:25 24% 16% 2.0% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052 5h 40m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 47m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 6h 25m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 6h 13m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521 6h 51m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:40 → DTW 07:55DL 4924 · flown by Endeavor 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164 5h 17m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 1h 01m Dulles IAD 08:20 → RDU 09:37UA 203 4h 02m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:42 → CLT 08:25AA 2938 1h 56m Charlotte CLT 10:21 → RDU 11:28AA 2688 4h 46m 98% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON