tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2186 Southwest IND 05:01 RSW 07:36 3% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 1518 Southwest IND 11:51 RSW 14:26 13% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 56m Dulles IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406 5h 18m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 16m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 6h 27m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 30m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 6h 37m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic 2h 42m Chicago ORD 09:02 → RSW 13:01UA 1036 7h 01m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:05 → ORD 07:33UA 3483 · flown by Republic 3h 18m Chicago ORD 10:51 → RSW 14:48UA 2137 7h 43m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → IND 10:30 → DTW 11:45DL 4875 · flown by Endeavor 2h 43m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 6h 52m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IND 16:01 → EWR 18:13UA 3667 · flown by Republic 55m Newark EWR 19:08 → RSW 22:24UA 2188 6h 23m 69% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON