Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2517 Southwest	IND 08:06	SAN 09:37	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	9h 24m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843	8h 44m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 13m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:15DL 924	10h 08m	100%	82%
United Details →	IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa	1h 07m Dulles	IAD 08:26 → SAN 10:49UA 1930	8h 14m	97%	82%
United Details →	IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic	1h 33m Chicago	ORD 07:53 → SAN 10:25UA 3771	7h 25m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	7h 13m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	IND 07:47 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor	3h 31m Detroit	DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:10DL 761	9h 23m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IND 10:30 → DTW 11:45DL 4875 · flown by Endeavor	49m Detroit	DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:10DL 761	6h 40m	69%	56%
Delta Details →	IND 17:15 → JFK 19:39DL 4984 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 20:29 → SAN 23:43DL 685	9h 28m	72%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON