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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 15:38, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 500 United Flight history → IND 06:00 SFO 07:42 7% 2% 0.6% 84%
UA 2799 United Flight history → IND 19:59 SFO 21:47 25% 11% 0.6% 22%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 2h 26m Dulles IAD 09:45 → SFO 12:29UA 1773 9h 54m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic 1h 10m Chicago ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 7h 19m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 55m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 7h 25m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 45m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic 2h 56m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 27m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 09m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → IND 12:18 → MSP 13:04DL 2456 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 7h 54m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → IND 07:10 → JFK 09:29AA 4631 · flown by Republic 1h 00m New York JFK 10:29 → SFO 13:54AA 149 9h 44m 96% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON