tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2191 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2191 Southwest IND 05:21 TPA 07:39 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 2192 Southwest IND 14:06 TPA 16:24 16% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 4h 12m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 1h 41m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 57m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic 1h 11m Chicago ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24UA 2326 5h 24m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 5h 44m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:42 → CLT 08:25AA 2938 2h 00m Charlotte CLT 10:25 → TPA 12:20AA 436 5h 38m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 08m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 5h 28m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:40 → DTW 07:55DL 4924 · flown by Endeavor 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 6h 10m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IND 16:01 → EWR 18:13UA 3667 · flown by Republic 1h 00m Newark EWR 19:13 → TPA 22:21UA 1647 6h 20m 74% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON