Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2200 at 06:02, 3%.

Safest bet that day WN 2200 ITO 06:02 → HNL 07:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1051 ITO 13:59 → HNL 14:54 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Weather 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2200 Southwest	ITO 06:02	HNL 07:14	3%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1001 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 06:00	HNL 06:54	10%	3%	1.3%	93%
WN 2201 Southwest	ITO 08:02	HNL 09:14	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
AS 1011 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 07:35	HNL 08:29	14%	4%	1.3%	91%
WN 2202 Southwest	ITO 11:41	HNL 12:53	19%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 1031 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 11:27	HNL 12:22	36%	9%	1.8%	75%worse than usual
AS 1021 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 09:26	HNL 10:20	37%	8%	1.8%	89%worse than usual
AS 1041 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 12:55	HNL 14:00	37%	12%	1.8%	78%worse than usual
AS 1051 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 13:59	HNL 14:54	41%	12%	1.8%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON