Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 1019 at 08:30, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 1019 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 08:30	OGG 09:10	13%	2%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ITO 06:00 → HNL 06:54AS 1001	1h 08m Honolulu	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	2h 43m	94%	79%
Alaska Details →	ITO 07:35 → HNL 08:29AS 1011	2h 30m Honolulu	HNL 10:59 → OGG 11:41AS 1076	4h 06m	100%	63%
Alaska Details →	ITO 11:27 → HNL 12:22AS 1031	2h 13m Honolulu	HNL 14:35 → OGG 15:25AS 1136	3h 58m	98%	51%
Alaska Details →	ITO 09:26 → HNL 10:20AS 1021	3h 18m Honolulu	HNL 13:38 → OGG 14:28AS 1126	5h 02m	100%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ITO 09:26 → HNL 10:20AS 1021	1h 04m Honolulu	HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086	2h 41m	69%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON