Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 1049 at 11:07, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1049 American Flight history →	JAC 11:07	CLT 17:09	22%	6%	0.7%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070	7h 12m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	7h 44m	97%	80%
United Details →	JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:51 → CLT 15:18UA 2231	6h 18m	90%	77%
United Details →	JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717	2h 27m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	7h 26m	96%	77%
American Details →	JAC 11:55 → DFW 15:45AA 3052	3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:49 → CLT 22:32AA 3002	8h 37m	97%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON