Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5543 at 10:44 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 5543 JAC 10:44 → DEN 12:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2132 JAC 16:28 → DEN 18:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5543 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAC 10:44	DEN 12:21	8%	4%	0.8%	92%
UA 1978 United Flight history →	JAC 07:00	DEN 08:40	14%	5%	0.7%	87%
UA 1717 United Flight history →	JAC 13:42	DEN 15:18	15%	7%	0.6%	80%
UA 2791 United Flight history →	JAC 14:44	DEN 16:21	18%	8%	0.6%	65%
UA 2132 United	JAC 16:28	DEN 18:05	22%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON