tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 1h 32m Denver DEN 10:12 → EWR 16:16UA 2381 7h 16m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 2h 32m Denver DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613 8h 02m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 09m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:44 → DEN 12:21UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m Denver DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715 8h 45m 99% 64%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:55 → DFW 15:45AA 3052 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:15 → EWR 22:51AA 618 8h 56m 95% 61%
DeltaDetails → JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 7h 19m 90% 60%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:07 → CLT 17:09AA 1049 2h 57m Charlotte CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794 9h 05m 96% 57%
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:00 → LAX 09:20UA 1431 1h 55m Los Angeles LAX 11:15 → EWR 19:30UA 1981 9h 30m 86% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON