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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 7h 09m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 7h 35m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:43 → DEN 12:20UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Denver DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489 7h 27m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → IAH 17:30DL 1131 7h 55m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 5h 25m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 2h 01m Denver DEN 17:19 → IAH 20:51UA 1587 6h 09m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:00 → LAX 09:20UA 1431 3h 41m Los Angeles LAX 13:01 → IAH 18:24UA 1084 9h 24m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791 1h 47m Denver DEN 18:08 → IAH 21:40UA 1055 5h 56m 93% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:00 → LAX 09:20UA 1431 50m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → IAH 15:40UA 277 6h 40m 58% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON