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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 6h 00m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:44 → DEN 12:21UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Denver DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470 7h 02m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 3h 27m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076 7h 08m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935 6h 39m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 8h 43m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 5h 04m 93% 82%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397 4h 40m 86% 78%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:07 → CLT 17:09AA 1049 2h 04m Charlotte CLT 19:13 → MSP 21:03AA 2176 8h 56m 90% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON