Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3123 at 11:58, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3123 SkyWest	JAC 11:58	SEA 13:05	19%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	6h 09m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817	6h 00m	100%	80%
United Details →	JAC 10:44 → DEN 12:21UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest	1h 52m Denver	DEN 14:13 → SEA 16:22UA 2833	6h 38m	97%	80%
United Details →	JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978	2h 44m Denver	DEN 11:24 → SEA 13:14UA 2058	7h 14m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282	2h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	6h 18m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON