Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2241 at 17:35, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2241 United	JAC 17:35	SFO 18:58	28%	15%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	JAC 10:44 → DEN 12:21UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m Denver	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	7h 46m	100%	77%
United Details →	JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978	2h 41m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 04m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	5h 23m	98%	74%
United Details →	JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717	2h 36m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	6h 58m	98%	73%
American Details →	JAC 14:01 → LAX 15:22AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 17:31 → SFO 19:03AA 3138	6h 02m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	5h 44m	98%	73%
United Details →	JAC 08:00 → LAX 09:20UA 1431	2h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 11:55 → SFO 13:34UA 1245	6h 34m	90%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON