Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: DL 3772 at 14:31 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3772 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAX 14:31	AUS 16:25	18%	6%	3.5%	82%
WN 2203 Southwest	JAX 19:01	AUS 20:37	28%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976	4h 57m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 03m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	6h 37m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	7h 09m	100%	85%
United Details →	JAX 09:20 → IAD 11:16UA 1434	1h 54m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → AUS 15:37UA 2746	7h 17m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491	7h 38m	100%	83%
United Details →	JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453	3h 36m Houston	IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859	7h 07m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	JAX 11:47 → DTW 14:08DL 2333	2h 27m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → AUS 18:41DL 1612	7h 54m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON