Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2209 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2209 JAX 06:36 → BNA 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2211 JAX 16:31 → BNA 17:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2209 Southwest	JAX 06:36	BNA 07:20	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2804 Southwest	JAX 11:01	BNA 11:45	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2211 Southwest	JAX 16:31	BNA 17:15	22%	5%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON