Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5632 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 5632 JAX 06:45 → BOS 09:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 810 JAX 20:40 → BOS 23:23 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5632 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 06:45	BOS 09:34	8%	3%	1.0%	92%
DL 5657 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 19:25	BOS 22:22	19%	11%	1.1%	73%
B6 1310 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 10:46	BOS 13:26	21%	9%	1.2%	73%
DL 5597 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 12:24	BOS 15:15	28%	14%	10.2%	77%
B6 810 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 20:40	BOS 23:23	31%	18%	1.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON