Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3116 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3116 JAX 06:00 → CLT 07:32 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1999 JAX 18:11 → CLT 19:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3116 American	JAX 06:00	CLT 07:32	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1834 American Flight history →	JAX 06:18	CLT 07:45	7%	2%	0.8%	92%
AA 1925 American Flight history →	JAX 13:07	CLT 14:41	20%	5%	4.4%	70%
AA 1462 American	JAX 14:59	CLT 16:32	22%	5%	2.5%	no record
AA 1999 American Flight history →	JAX 18:11	CLT 19:45	25%	6%	1.1%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON