Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2859 at 18:31, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2859 Southwest	JAX 18:31	DAL 20:03	32%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441	4h 51m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	5h 24m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 22m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:14 → ATL 17:32DL 2990	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 11m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	5h 49m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON