Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3731 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3731 JAX 06:02 → DCA 08:02 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1463 JAX 20:07 → DCA 22:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3731 Envoy	JAX 06:02	DCA 08:02	8%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 949 American Flight history →	JAX 11:49	DCA 13:44	18%	7%	0.9%	89%
AA 1463 American Flight history →	JAX 20:07	DCA 22:24	20%	8%	1.3%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON