Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 671 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 671 JAX 08:09 → DEN 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 459 JAX 17:06 → DEN 18:42 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 671 United Flight history →	JAX 08:09	DEN 09:55	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 2014 United	JAX 15:04	DEN 16:38	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 459 Southwest	JAX 17:06	DEN 18:42	29%	6%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	5h 19m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	47m Atlanta	ATL 15:02 → DEN 16:09DL 493	5h 04m	78%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON