Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1171 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1171 JAX 07:24 → DFW 09:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1472 JAX 17:11 → DFW 18:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1171 American Flight history →	JAX 07:24	DFW 09:12	8%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 2789 American Flight history →	JAX 08:59	DFW 10:42	11%	3%	1.0%	91%
AA 1061 American Flight history →	JAX 12:12	DFW 14:01	20%	7%	7.0%	80%
AA 2329 American	JAX 13:48	DFW 15:35	21%	7%	4.0%	no record
AA 1460 American	JAX 19:52	DFW 21:43	22%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 1472 American	JAX 17:11	DFW 18:55	24%	7%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON