Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2333 Delta Flight history →	JAX 11:47	DTW 14:08	8%	4%	0.9%	90%
DL 2994 Delta Flight history →	JAX 18:22	DTW 20:45	14%	5%	1.0%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 08:21 → DTW 10:21DL 643	4h 51m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	5h 56m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	6h 01m	99%	86%
United Details →	JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453	1h 16m Houston	IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa	6h 37m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	6h 46m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262	6h 21m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:05 → JFK 09:29DL 4959 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m New York	JFK 12:56 → DTW 14:44DL 1654	7h 39m	97%	81%
American Details →	JAX 06:33 → ORD 08:29AA 764	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DTW 12:05AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	5h 32m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON