Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1434 United Flight history →	JAX 09:20	IAD 11:16	6%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1938 United Flight history →	JAX 12:39	IAD 14:56	9%	5%	7.2%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 07:43 → IAD 09:26DL 1324	3h 56m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965	6h 06m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	5h 44m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	6h 05m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309	6h 13m	99%	81%
United Details →	JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa	1h 36m Houston	IAH 14:47 → IAD 18:58UA 1178	7h 21m	96%	80%
American Details →	JAX 07:24 → DFW 09:12AA 1171	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → IAD 14:40AA 524	7h 16m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	5h 25m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON