Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 478 at 10:37 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26%.

Safest bet that day B6 478 JAX 10:37 → JFK 13:09 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1035 JAX 17:50 → JFK 20:27 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 478 JetBlue	JAX 10:37	JFK 13:09	16%	8%	1.8%	no record
B6 678 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 18:58	JFK 21:30	26%	15%	2.4%	74%
DL 1035 Delta Flight history →	JAX 17:50	JFK 20:27	26%	10%	1.1%	49%
DL 4959 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 07:05	JFK 09:29	10%	4%	3.2%	90%
DL 5483 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 12:09	JFK 14:48	20%	9%	5.9%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON