Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2711 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 2711 JAX 07:52 → MIA 09:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest MQ 3342 JAX 15:47 → MIA 17:10 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2711 American Flight history →	JAX 07:52	MIA 09:27	11%	4%	0.9%	93%
MQ 4024 Envoy	JAX 09:59	MIA 11:23	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
MQ 4023 Envoy	JAX 19:37	MIA 21:00	37%	12%	1.7%	no record
MQ 3342 Envoy	JAX 15:47	MIA 17:10	39%	12%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON