Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 764 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 764 JAX 06:33 → ORD 08:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 3486 JAX 18:22 → ORD 20:04 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 764 American Flight history →	JAX 06:33	ORD 08:29	9%	3%	1.8%	81%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	JAX 09:38	ORD 11:31	13%	4%	0.6%	82%
OO 5258 SkyWest	JAX 07:09	ORD 09:03	14%	5%	1.9%	no record
YX 4459 Republic	JAX 12:24	ORD 14:22	22%	8%	6.2%	no record
UA 2211 United Flight history →	JAX 16:55	ORD 18:48	28%	9%	1.0%	70%
OO 5401 SkyWest	JAX 12:42	ORD 14:35	29%	11%	4.7%	no record
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 18:22	ORD 20:04	30%	8%	1.3%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON