Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1819 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1819 JAX 07:00 → PHL 09:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1803 JAX 18:12 → PHL 20:40 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1819 American	JAX 07:00	PHL 09:29	8%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 709 American Flight history →	JAX 09:56	PHL 12:24	10%	4%	1.0%	91%
F9 2862 Frontier	JAX 09:11	PHL 11:47	12%	6%	1.5%	no record
OH 5060 PSA	JAX 15:58	PHL 18:24	21%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 1803 American	JAX 18:12	PHL 20:40	24%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON