tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 31m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834 3h 52m Charlotte CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 9h 38m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 03m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 01m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa 3h 50m Houston IAH 17:01 → PHX 18:08UA 1478 9h 31m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → JAX 07:24 → DFW 09:12AA 1171 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:29 → PHX 12:14AA 359 7h 50m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453 1h 11m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 6h 29m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → JAX 11:47 → DTW 14:08DL 2333 2h 42m Detroit DTW 16:50 → PHX 17:55DL 1135 9h 08m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON