Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


F9 3306 Frontier Flight history →	JAX 12:09	SJU 15:32	21%	9%	8.2%	76%
B6 1743 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 15:20	SJU 18:36	24%	12%	1.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 08:12 → SJU 11:52DL 1930	6h 22m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	6h 32m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946	8h 22m	99%	84%
United Details →	JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa	1h 52m Houston	IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701	9h 01m	97%	84%
American Details →	JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	8h 32m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861	7h 39m	99%	83%
United Details →	JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453	1h 34m Houston	IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192	8h 37m	96%	80%
American Details →	JAX 07:52 → MIA 09:27AA 2711	3h 45m Miami	MIA 13:12 → SJU 16:04AA 967	8h 12m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON