Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2221 at 05:46, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2221 Southwest	JAX 05:46	STL 07:04	2%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 07:43 → STL 08:19DL 1571	3h 49m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 17m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543	6h 25m	100%	85%
American Details →	JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 08:47 → STL 09:50AA 2497	4h 32m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 11:47 → DTW 14:08DL 2333	2h 37m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	6h 37m	99%	85%
United Details →	JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa	2h 20m Houston	IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa	7h 05m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833	6h 15m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	5h 48m	97%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON