Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 09:59, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	JFK 09:59 → PDX 12:49AS 19	1h 41m Portland	PDX 14:30 → ANC 17:27AS 315	11h 28m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699	3h 26m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	13h 25m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 17:31 → ANC 20:26DL 2367	12h 56m	97%	77%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	3h 05m Seattle	SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440	13h 08m	99%	72%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:09 → ANC 19:27AA 399	15h 12m	97%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON