Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2286 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2286 JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 419 JFK 15:08 → ATL 17:38 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2286 Delta Flight history →	JFK 06:00	ATL 08:29	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2227 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:40	ATL 11:23	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1029 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:00	ATL 13:33	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2342 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:10	ATL 15:45	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1480 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:41	ATL 18:34	13%	5%	0.6%	76%
DL 962 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:00	ATL 22:11	14%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 2293 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:40	ATL 20:46	15%	5%	0.6%	78%
F9 4731 Frontier Flight history →	JFK 13:00	ATL 15:50	24%	7%	1.0%	67%
B6 119 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:36	ATL 12:57	25%	6%	1.1%	61%
B6 719 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	ATL 23:45	33%	11%	1.1%	63%
B6 419 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:08	ATL 17:38	37%	12%	0.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON