Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1406 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1406 JFK 07:07 → AUS 10:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2772 JFK 19:15 → AUS 22:17 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1406 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:07	AUS 10:04	7%	2%	1.0%	93%
AA 810 American	JFK 07:28	AUS 10:26	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 2303 American	JFK 12:30	AUS 15:31	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 2323 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:10	AUS 14:06	15%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 1643 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:40	AUS 16:47	16%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 1233 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:58	AUS 22:46	22%	6%	0.8%	76%
AA 2772 American Flight history →	JFK 19:15	AUS 22:17	23%	7%	1.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON