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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Hartford on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082 6h 45m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 7h 36m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444 1h 57m Charlotte CLT 12:04 → BDL 14:17AA 2741 6h 18m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735 6h 59m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19DL 2504 8h 09m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor 1h 07m Detroit DTW 10:30 → BDL 12:13DL 2163 4h 58m 89% 79%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 20:31 → BDL 22:56DL 2765 7h 15m 95% 78%
JetBlueDetails → JFK 12:15 → MCO 15:10B6 83 1h 30m Orlando MCO 16:40 → BDL 19:40B6 138 7h 25m 91% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON