Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5765 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 5765 JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 818 JFK 17:25 → BOS 18:59 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5765 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:00	BOS 07:26	6%	2%	1.3%	92%
B6 2718 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	BOS 07:14	9%	3%	1.8%	89%
YX 4364 Republic	JFK 08:30	BOS 09:46	14%	3%	1.9%	no record
DL 5733 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 09:50	BOS 11:15	15%	4%	1.4%	86%
B6 1018 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:59	BOS 11:26	19%	7%	1.7%	84%
DL 8879 Delta	JFK 12:02	BOS 13:08	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 5595 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:30	BOS 16:08	25%	9%	1.2%	79%
B6 2918 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:25	BOS 12:36	27%	8%	1.3%	64%
DL 8880 Delta	JFK 13:02	BOS 14:08	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
DL 5798 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 17:30	BOS 19:16	30%	11%	1.4%	63%
AA 4397 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:31	BOS 16:47	30%	11%	1.1%	63%
B6 1118 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 13:20	BOS 14:43	33%	15%	1.3%	63%
B6 618 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:40	BOS 17:07	39%	21%	1.5%	59%
B6 818 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:25	BOS 18:59	42%	19%	1.5%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON