Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 1602 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day B6 1602 JFK 06:30 → BUF 07:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1202 JFK 16:46 → BUF 18:26 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 1602 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:30	BUF 07:52	8%	3%	1.6%	89%
B6 2902 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 13:29	BUF 14:59	22%	8%	2.1%	82%
B6 1202 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:46	BUF 18:26	30%	13%	2.4%	64%
DL 5223 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 08:00	BUF 09:41	11%	2%	2.9%	89%
DL 5264 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 22:40	BUF 00:38	17%	9%	8.4%	83%
DL 5296 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 13:29	BUF 15:09	18%	6%	4.2%	82%
DL 5250 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 17:29	BUF 19:25	26%	9%	8.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON