Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 358 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:17	BUR 20:35	24%	10%	1.8%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	8h 54m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 55m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	JFK 09:59 → PDX 12:49AS 19	2h 06m Portland	PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386	10h 14m	97%	82%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 13:55 → BUR 16:24AS 529	12h 24m	99%	70%
American Details →	JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:54 → BUR 20:26AA 2597	8h 44m	86%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON