tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 7h 01m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic 3h 44m Boston BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic 6h 53m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 13m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444 2h 20m Charlotte CLT 12:27 → BWI 14:10AA 2733 6h 11m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928 6h 54m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267 6h 15m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → JFK 11:59 → CLT 14:05AA 493 2h 06m Charlotte CLT 16:11 → BWI 17:54AA 3121 5h 55m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 51m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 6h 40m 86% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON