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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 11:14, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 1h 33m Minneapolis MSP 10:58 → BZN 12:31DL 2946 7h 16m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 11m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643 1h 45m Charlotte CLT 09:42 → BZN 12:23AA 2415 8h 24m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 52m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 7h 17m 92% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699 1h 26m Seattle SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 9h 35m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → BZN 15:16AA 947 9h 01m 96% 80%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21 1h 32m Seattle SEA 11:48 → BZN 14:24AS 277 9h 24m 95% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → BZN 20:39AA 1774 7h 57m 75% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON