Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4670 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 4670 JFK 10:00 → CLE 11:50 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 2768 JFK 20:38 → CLE 22:24 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4670 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 10:00	CLE 11:50	13%	4%	1.4%	87%
YX 4379 Republic	JFK 15:36	CLE 17:27	20%	6%	1.5%	no record
B6 2768 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:38	CLE 22:24	40%	14%	1.7%	68%
DL 5018 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 09:05	CLE 11:06	13%	4%	3.2%	87%
DL 4975 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 14:30	CLE 16:35	21%	6%	4.8%	79%
DL 4946 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 21:30	CLE 23:43	31%	13%	7.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON