Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2643 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2643 JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3120 JFK 17:00 → CLT 19:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2643 American Flight history →	JFK 05:59	CLT 07:57	5%	2%	1.2%	93%
AA 1444 American Flight history →	JFK 07:59	CLT 10:07	11%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 493 American Flight history →	JFK 11:59	CLT 14:05	13%	5%	1.0%	86%
YX 5688 Republic	JFK 11:33	CLT 13:27	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 377 American	JFK 15:29	CLT 17:22	18%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 3120 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	CLT 19:30	19%	9%	1.1%	70%
DL 5052 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:10	CLT 09:17	10%	6%	1.2%	90%
DL 5067 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 16:15	CLT 18:46	27%	10%	5.7%	73%
DL 5049 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 11:00	CLT 13:09	27%	11%	3.5%	73%
DL 5036 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 20:29	CLT 23:03	28%	14%	8.2%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON