Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5649 JFK 09:50 → CMH 11:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 5650 JFK 15:25 → CMH 17:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5649 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 09:50	CMH 11:48	11%	3%	1.1%	83%
AA 4767 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:44	CMH 16:45	13%	4%	0.9%	78%
YX 4399 Republic	JFK 11:53	CMH 13:46	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 5650 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:25	CMH 17:35	16%	5%	1.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON