Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4609 at 11:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4609 JFK 11:10 → CVG 13:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 9011 JFK 14:00 → CVG 15:56 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4609 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 11:10	CVG 13:21	13%	3%	0.9%	89%
YX 4388 Republic	JFK 08:30	CVG 10:34	13%	2%	1.2%	no record
B6 9011 JetBlue	JFK 14:00	CVG 15:56	28%	9%	1.0%	no record
DL 4985 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 08:51	CVG 11:08	17%	7%	2.3%	83%
DL 5012 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 14:20	CVG 16:51	21%	10%	3.4%	79%
DL 5023 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 18:29	CVG 21:05	28%	15%	5.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON