Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4671 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4671 JFK 06:29 → DCA 07:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest DL 5713 JFK 14:53 → DCA 16:21 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4671 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:29	DCA 07:57	9%	2%	1.2%	67%
YX 4586 Republic	JFK 08:25	DCA 09:53	13%	3%	1.4%	no record
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 08:32	DCA 10:00	14%	3%	1.6%	60%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:53	DCA 16:21	22%	6%	1.1%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON