Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 532 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 532 JFK 08:30 → DEN 10:58 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 424 JFK 17:48 → DEN 19:56 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 532 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	DEN 10:58	12%	2%	0.8%	85%
B6 1497 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:05	DEN 14:11	14%	5%	0.8%	83%
DL 424 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:48	DEN 19:56	24%	5%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON