Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2234 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2234 JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 496 JFK 17:55 → DFW 21:07 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2234 American Flight history →	JFK 08:15	DFW 11:11	11%	4%	1.1%	85%
AA 1880 American	JFK 11:31	DFW 14:06	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1953 American Flight history →	JFK 14:42	DFW 17:44	18%	5%	0.9%	69%
AA 606 American Flight history →	JFK 17:25	DFW 20:30	22%	8%	1.2%	60%
DL 496 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:55	DFW 21:07	24%	7%	1.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON