Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1654 at 12:56 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1654 JFK 12:56 → DTW 14:44 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 920 JFK 14:29 → DTW 16:21 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1654 Delta	JFK 12:56	DTW 14:44	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2443 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:30	DTW 18:57	18%	6%	0.8%	83%
DL 1253 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:30	DTW 22:04	20%	6%	1.0%	71%
B6 920 JetBlue	JFK 14:29	DTW 16:21	29%	10%	1.1%	no record
DL 5080 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:15	DTW 09:25	13%	5%	3.0%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON