Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1422 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 1422 JFK 07:00 → FLL 10:07 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 1801 JFK 18:11 → FLL 21:07 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1422 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	FLL 10:07	10%	3%	0.8%	88%
B6 1 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	FLL 09:00	11%	3%	1.2%	85%
DL 305 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:14	FLL 14:24	16%	5%	0.9%	80%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:30	FLL 18:54	20%	7%	0.9%	75%
DL 1414 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:58	FLL 23:28	20%	8%	1.0%	68%
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:21	FLL 11:17	22%	7%	1.2%	87%
B6 8579 JetBlue	JFK 08:14	FLL 11:10	24%	8%	1.3%	no record
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:21	FLL 15:31	24%	10%	1.3%	68%
B6 1201 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:36	FLL 19:35	36%	14%	1.6%	77%worse than usual
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:11	FLL 21:07	38%	14%	1.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON