tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 636 Delta Flight history → JFK 10:05 HNL 14:45 33% 7% 1.2% 77%
AS 829 Alaska Flight history → JFK 08:55 HNL 13:49 37% 10% 2.3% 63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 13h 20m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:55DL 742 4h 00m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 15h 43m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:31 → LAX 11:16AA 1 3h 39m Los Angeles LAX 14:55 → HNL 17:57AA 143 15h 26m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 2h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 14h 19m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:14 → DTW 09:02DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor 1h 28m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 12h 53m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:59 → SEA 15:01DL 1719 1h 38m Seattle SEA 16:39 → HNL 19:59DL 419 14h 00m 96% 68%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 1h 13m Phoenix PHX 10:31 → HNL 14:16AA 693 13h 14m 93% 64%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SAN 14:27AS 35 2h 59m San Diego SAN 17:26 → HNL 20:10AS 828 14h 40m 98% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON